In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure...

This article considers the application to regional price data of time series methods to test stationarity, multivariate cointegration and exogeneity. The discovery of stationary price differentials in a bivariate setting implies that the series are rendered stationary by capturing a common trend...

This paper revisits the Kareken-Wallace model of exchange rate formation in a two-country overlapping generations world. Following the seminal paper by Arifovic (Journal of Political Economy, 104, 1996, 510-541) we investigate a dynamic version of the model in which agents' decision rules are...

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

We consider a cross-calibration test of predictions by multiple potential experts in a stochastic environment. This test checks whether each expert is calibrated conditional on the predictions made by other experts. We show that this test is good in the sense that a true expert - one informed of...

Empirical evidence on the out-of-sample performance of asset-pricing anomalies is mixed so far and arguably is often subject to data-snooping bias. This paper proposes a method that can significantly reduce this bias. Specifically, we consider a long-only strategy that involves only published...

We examine a dynamic disclosure model in which the value of a firm follows a random walk. Every period, with some probability, the manager learns the value and decides whether to disclose it. The manager maximizes the market perception of the firm's value, which is based on disclosed...