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the main drivers of this change is the low fertility level, often referred to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), since the … TFR of 1.47. However, separate analysis of age-specific fertility lead to expected increases of the future TFR. This study … presents a stochastic projection of the TFR based on econometric-statistical modeling of age-specific fertility rates over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011527282
Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding … measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a … on a quasi-three principal component model are fitted to the age- and sex-specific fertility rates (ASSFR). Age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011722114
This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001456428
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001524640
This paper proposes a test for missing at random (MAR). The MAR assumption is shown to be testable given instrumental variables which are independent of response given potential outcomes. A nonparametric testing procedure based on integrated squared distance is proposed. The statistic’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503886
This paper proposes a test for missing at random (MAR). The MAR assumption is shown to be testable given instrumental variables which are independent of response given potential outcomes. A nonparametric testing procedure based on integrated squared distance is proposed. The statistic’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619523
This paper proposes a test for missing at random (MAR). The MAR assumption is shown to be testable given instrumental variables which are independent of response given potential outcomes. A nonparametric testing procedure based on integrated squared distance is proposed. The statistic's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894725
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012176614
We use time-series of rainfall along with individual fixed effects to estimate the response of body weight to transitory changes in house-hold income and expenditure. Our data consist of a longitudinal sample of subsistence farmers in rural Tazania, representing one of the poorest populations in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321546