Showing 1 - 10 of 14,225
This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611542
I construct a continuous time model of strategic default and provide a numerical algorithm that solves it. I compare the results and computation times to standard discrete time models of sovereign debt. The method proposed here is faster than discrete time computation methods while obtaining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932385
In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976947
We build an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks and learn about those components using the Kalman filter. Calibrated to Mexico, the model predicts a higher variability of consumption relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273643
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218680
We build an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks and learn about those components using the Kalman filter. Calibrated to Mexico, the model predicts a higher variability of consumption relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008988424
In this paper we develop a model for the conditional inflated multivariate density of integer count variables with domain Zn. Our modelling framework is based on a copula approach and can be used for a broad set of applications where the primary characteristics of the data are: (i) discrete...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266935
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907940
This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474689
Pure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support formonetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled timeseries estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting inparameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlyingtheory. Based on a panel version of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299983