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Dynamic discrete-choice models are an important tool in studies of state dependence in benefit receipt. A common assumption of such models is that benefit receipt sequences follow a conditional Markov process. This property has implications for how estimated period-to-period benefit transition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453987
One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for …-parametric density estimation techniques to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of 17 … countries. They find that in most countries, unemployment persistence is small once the (infrequently) changing mean rate has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014219762
Konjunkturzyklus. Es zeigt sich, dass der jahrzehntelange Aufwärtstrend der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland vollständig durch Hysterese … erklärt werden kann. Dagegen folgte die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA keinem Hysterese-Muster, auch nicht während der großen … Rezession. Deutschland überstand diese Rezession so gut, weil sowohl Hysterese als auch strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit durch …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
This work aims to test the persistence of Italian unemployment rate during last fifty years. To this scope we find … evidences of a unit root, also when we allow for the presence of structural shifts so that the level of unemployment has a path … macroregional behaviours so that the great bulk of persistence is given by Center - Southern unemployment. It implies that changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770604
We estimate business cycle regime switching logit models for G7 countries to determine the effect of duration of the current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With respect to expansions in a G7 country, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937263
I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316851
I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009740949
I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014171647
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001221183
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013264764