-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …

-varying autoregressive (TVAR) models that incorporate uncertainty on model order. Our modelling approach assumes that the AR coefficients …