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Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data

Bialowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - 2015

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536

Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data

Bialowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - 2015

The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021

Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations

Kaufmann, Daniel; Scheufele, Rolf - 2015

encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347

Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings : forecasting education flows using unemployment data

Blasques, Francisco; Hoogerkamp, Meindert Heres; … - 2020

in its ability to accurately capture clusters and preserve or enhance forecasting accuracy. For a high …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315409

EuroMInd-C : a disaggregate monthly indicator of economic activity for the Euro area and member countries

Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso; Frale, Cecilia; … - 2014

The paper deals with the estimation of monthly indicators of economic activity for the Euro area and its largest member countries that possess the following attributes: relevance, representativeness and timeliness. Relevance is obtained by referring our monthly indicators to gross domestic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402282

Filtering German economic conditions from a large dataset : the new DIW economic barometer

Viefers, Paul; Fichtner, Ferdinand; Junker, Simon; … - 2014

This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417490

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie - 2006

The output gap (measuring the deviation of output from its potential) is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a measure of economic fluctuations. However, its definition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284323

Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle

Reif, Magnus - 2019

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125

Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; … - 2020

Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259379

Constructing daily economic sentiment indices based on Google Trends

Eichenauer, Vera; Indergand, Ronald; Martínez, Isabel; … - 2020

Google Trends have become a popular data source for social science research. We show that for small countries or sub-national regions like U.S. states, underlying sampling noise in Google Trends can be substantial. The data may therefore be unreliable for time series analysis and is furthermore...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239254