In this paper we investigate the behavior of inflation persistence in the United States. To model inflation we estimate an autoregressive GARCH-in-mean model with variable coefficients and we propose a new measure of second-order time varying persistence, which not only distinguishes between...

This paper concerns goodness-of-fit test for semiparametric copula models. Our contribution is two-fold: we first propose a new test constructed via the comparison between "in-sample" and "out-of-sample" pseudolikelihoods, which avoids the use of any probability integral transformations. Under...

The ınvestment decisions of institutional and individual investors in financial markets are largely influenced by market uncertainty and volatility of the investment instruments. Thus, the prediction of the uncertainty and volatilities of the prices and returns of the investment instruments...

The estimation and the analysis of long memory parameters have mainly focused on the analysis of long-range dependence in stock return volatility using traditional time and spectral domain estimators of long memory. The definitive ubiquity and existence of long memory in the volatility of stock...

It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution, and that the fat tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular ARCH and stochastic volatility models. We consider two...

In this study, we model realized volatility constructed from intraday high-frequency data. We explore the possibility of confusing long memory and structural breaks in the realized volatility of the following spot exchange rates: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, and EUR/AUD. The results show...

ARFIMAX models are applied in estimating the intra-day realized volatility of the CAC40 and DAX30 indices. Volatility clustering and asymmetry characterize the logarithmic realized volatility of both indices. ARFIMAX model with time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity is the best performing...

This paper investigates whether gold and silver can be considered safe havens by examining their long-run linkages with 22 stock price indices. More specifically, the stochastic properties of the differential between gold/silver prices and 22 stock indices are analysed applying fractional...

This paper investigates whether gold and silver can be considered safe havens by examining their long-run linkages with 22 stock price indices. More specifically, the stochastic properties of the differential between gold/silver prices and 22 stock indices are analysed applying fractional...

Überraschend ist im Mai die Arbeitslosigkeit gefallen. Diese positive Entwicklung wird sich im Juni zunächst fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung basiert auf einem neuen methodischen Konzept, das Google-Aktivitätsdaten für die kurzfristige Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit einsetzt. Gerade in...