; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically … significant forecasting gains are achieved with a model that forecasts the lowest frequency component of inflation (corresponding …

utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics …-sample, while inflation expectations dominate medium-to-long-run cycles, energy prices dominate short cycles and business …-to-medium cycles once expectations became anchored. While statistically significant, unemployment is not economically relevant for any …

emerging market country by taking Turkey as a case. For this purpose we compare the forecasting performance of Phillips curve …

policy is not implemented in the same way and the NNAR models are better for inflation forecasting. …

variables, but also by tilting to expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. For Phillips curves, averaging …