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Predicting crashes in oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic with mixed causal-noncausal models
Hecq, Alain W. J.; Voisin, Elisa - In: Essays in honor of Joon Y. Park : econometric …, (pp. 209-233). 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315310
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Rational bubbles and fractional integration
Kruse, Robinson - 2008
In this article we provide evidence for a rational bubble in S\&P 500 stock prices by applying a test for changing persistence under fractional integration proposed by Sibbertsen and Kruse (2007). We find strong evidence for stationary long memory before the estimated change point in 1955 and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265683
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Is there excess liquidity in China?
Liu, Tie-Ying; Su, Chi-Wei; Jiang, Xu Zhao; Chang, Tsangyao - In: China & world economy 23 (2015) 3, pp. 110-126
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346335
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A time-varying parameter model for local explosions
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Nientker, Marc - 2018
Locally explosive behavior is observed in many economic and financial time series when bubbles are formed. We introduce … be used to predict the emergence, existence and burst of bubbles. We adopt a flexible observation driven model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928329
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On testing for bubbles during hyperinflations
Morita, Rubens; Psaradakis, Zacharias G.; Sola, Martin; … - In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; … 28 (2024) 1, pp. 25-37
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014506885
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Bubble detective : city-level analysis of house price cycles
Cevik, Serhan; Naik, Sadhna - In: International finance : the only journal bridging the … 27 (2024) 1, pp. 2-16
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532193
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A review of Phillips-type right-tailed unit root bubble detection tests
Hu, Yang - In: Journal of economic surveys 37 (2023) 1, pp. 141-158
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287809
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The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts
Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2016
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
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Forecasting the price of gold
Hassani, Hossein; Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal; Gupta, Rangan; … - In: Applied economics 47 (2015) 37/39, pp. 4141-4152
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011294643
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Forecasting the number of incoming tourists using ARIMA model : case study from Armenia
Tovmasyan, Gayane - In: Marketing i menedžment innovacij : m&mi (2021) 3, pp. 139-148
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162671