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Price, sales, and the business cycle : a time series principal component analysis
Borraz, Fernando; Livan, Giacomo; Rodríguez-Martínez, … - 2020
find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389529
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Detecting unemployment hysteresis : a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching
Klinger, Sabine; Weber, Enzo - 2015
in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis … effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did … not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
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Price, sales, and the business cycle : microeconomic evidence
Borraz, Fernando; Livan, Giacomo; Rodríguez-Martínez, … - In: Latin American journal of central banking : LAJCB 3 (2022) 1, pp. 1-15
positive and statistically significant but small relationship between sales and unemployment at the aggregate level … employment. The mechanism we tested is the following: As the economy worsens and unemployment rises (and/or employment falls … sector’s variance in price dynamics. These components are significantly correlated with variations in unemployment and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013198119
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Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006
, the model is applied to postwar monthly US unemployment series and we discover a significantly periodic cycle. Furthermore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384
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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
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Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to Us Unemployment
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006
, the model is applied to postwar monthly US unemployment series and we discover a significantly periodic cycle. Furthermore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014054411
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Forecasting low frequency macroeconomic events with high frequency data
Galvão, Ana Beatriz C.; Owyang, Michael T. - 2020
High-frequency financial and economic activity indicators are usually time aggregated before forecasts of low-frequency macroeconomic events, such as recessions, are computed. We propose a mixed-frequency modelling alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012308083
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Are there two types of business cycles? : a note on crisis detection
Pater, Robert - In: E-Finanse : finansowy kwartalnik internetowy 10 (2014) 3, pp. 1-28
Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515548
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Characterizing the financial cycle : evidence from a frequency domain analysis
Strohsal, Till; Proaño Acosta, Christian; Wolters, Jürgen - 2015
A growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypotheses. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299043
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Characterizing the financial cycle : evidence from a frequency domain analysis
Strohsal, Till; Proaño Acosta, Christian; Wolters, Jürgen - 2015
A growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypothe- ses. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529352