I develop a new method for approximating and estimating nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I show that any such model can be well approximated by a discrete-state Markov process and estimated using techniques developed in Hamilton (1989). Through Monte Carlo simulations, I demonstrate...

We estimate the natural rate of interest for the US and the euro area in a semi-structural model comprising a Taylor rule. Our estimates feature key elements of Laubach and Williams (2003), but are more consistent with using conventional policy rules: we model inflation to be stationary, with...

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. Based on a descriptive analysis of international long-term yields, we find evidence that long-term rates have followed a global downward trend prior to as well as during the financial crisis....

We investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and bond spreads for 65 U.S. corporate entities and 6 major banks over the period April 2011 – February 2018. Standard regression methods reveal that in 40 out of 71 entities, the two series fail to...

We modify the Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models of the natural rate of interest to account for time-varying volatility and a persistent COVID supply shock during the pandemic. Resulting estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area...

We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...

Purpose - The study aims to determine the long and short-term causal relationships between the variables associated with the adjustment of monetary policy and the stock market in India in the presence of structural breaks. Design/methodology/approach - The study employed the autoregressive...

Over the last decade, it has become increasingly popular to use event studies with intraday asset pricing data to study the effect of macroeconomic events on the economy. The proponents of this approach argue that asset prices react to macroeconomic events very quickly and that if we know the...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influencesor more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the lastfew years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. Theempirical part...