In this study, we aim to build better risk models for energy commodities by employing statistical procedures to identify outliers in the prices for all crude oil and natural gas futures contracts traded on the CME over the period of December 2003 through March 2017. Our results show that it is...

In econometrics, long memory models for variance modeling like FIGARCH or FIAPARCH are characterized by a Fractional Differencing term. In order to estimate and apply these models, the infinite MacLaurin expansion of the differencing term has to be truncated at a certain level. We transfer the...

One of the key lessons of the crisis which began in 2007 has been the need to strengthen the risk coverage of the capital framework. In response, the Basel Committee in July 2009 completed a number of critical reforms to the Basel II framework which will raise capital requirements for the...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

Convertible bonds are an important segment of the corporate bond market, however, as hybrid instruments, convertible bonds are difficult to value because they depend on variables related to the underlying stock, the fixed-income part, and the interaction between these components. Besides,...

Demonstration that noise filtered correlation matrices can be used for early detection of a regime change in temporal behavior of securities. This demonstration was carried out for a portfolio of 40 S&P500 securities with just two, randomly chosen, securities undergoing a deliberately arranged...

Demonstration that our noise filtering procedure is extremely robust on the basis of the following experiment. The noise filtering procedure was applied first to an empirical correlation matrix and, second, to the matrix built from the same time series deliberately contaminated with noise. The...

Demonstration that our noise filtering procedure is extremely robust on the basis of the following experiment. The noise filtering procedure was applied first to an empirical correlation matrix and, second, to the same matrix deliberately contaminated with noise. The final, noise filtered...

Demonstration of the omnipresence of noise in financial correlation/covariance matrices revealed by means of random matrix theory, a branch of probability theory.Introduction of the Shannon entropy as a measure of noise in correlation matrices. Demonstration of substantial entropy decrease as a...

Alexander Izmailov, Ph.D (theoretical physics) and Brian Shay, Ph.D (mathematics) of Market Memory Trading, L.L.C. present, in a series of nine (9) white papers, aspects of a revolutionary advance in uncovering hidden dependencies via filtering noise from correlation matrices developed by the...