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factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study we … the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386428
-of-sample forecasting of using alternative estimators of the DFM under various sources of potential misspecification. In particular, we …, but it matters when the objective is out-of-sample forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013326908
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014196386
. To evaluate ex-ante forecasting performance for particular rates, different forecast features such as mean squared errors …-ante forecasting ; EURIBOR swap rates ; term structure ; directional accuracy ; big hit ability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636128
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813779
We develop an algorithm to construct approximate decision rules that are piecewise-linear and continuous for DSGE models with an occasionally binding constraint. The functional form of the decision rules allows us to derive a conditionally optimal particle filter (COPF) for the evaluation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012372759
We introduce a high-dimensional structural time series model, where co-movement between the components is due to common factors. A two-step estimation strategy is presented, which is based on principal components in differences in a first step and state space methods in a second step. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309972
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