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The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks
Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Jamali, Ibrahim - 2014
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a … vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant and asymmetric response of stock returns and volatility to … monetary policy shocks. Although the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume, and leverage appear to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395968
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Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns : A Score Driven State Space Model
Delle Monache, Davide - 2020
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
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Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns : a score driven state space model
Delle Monache, Davide; Petrella, Ivan; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2020
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
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Drifts, volatilities, and impulse responses over the last century
Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun - 2014
than you think.", respectively. We use vector autoregression with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489284
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Monetary Policy and the Stock Market : Time-Series Evidence
Neuhierl, Andreas - 2017
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965931
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Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics
Huber, Florian; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2015
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326550
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Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics
Huber, Florian; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2019
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118184
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Using Mean Reversion as a Measure of Persistence
Dias, Daniel; Robalo Marques, Carlos - 2021
This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the "unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t" and its estimator, is made clear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318721
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A Common Trends Model of UK Core Inflation
Bagliano, Fabio C.; Morana, Claudio - 2013
In this paper the long-run trend in RPI inflation (core inflation) for the UK over the 1961-1997 period is estimated within the framework of a multivariate common trends model which extends the bivariate VAR approach of Quah and Vahey (1995). In this context core inflation is directly linked to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014120488
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A VAR model for monetary policy analysis in a small open economy
Jacobson, Tor; Jansson, Per; Vredin, Anders; Warne, Anders - 1999
for economic analysis. This paper demonstrates how a VAR model with long run restrictions justified by economic theory can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584357