We study whether the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap produced by the OECD has improved over time by examining a panel dataset on real-time output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991 Q1 - 2005 Q4. We use a simple panel data regression and a state space model, with common...

Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later revised to show less (more) growth than initially...

This paper focuses on testing non-stationary real-time data for forecastability, i.e., whether data revisions reduce noise or are news, by putting data releases in vector-error correction forms. To deal with historical revisions which affect the whole vintage of time series due to redefinitions,...

Can green growth policies help protect the environment while keeping the industry growing and infrastructure expanding? This study applies Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method on the 50-years' time series data, from 1967 to 2015, of Kitakyushu City, Japan, and found mixed evidence for...

Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that...

The article presents the application of a linear regression model to the problem of space-time disaggregation of the GDP of the Polish economy. In the approach described, the structural parameters of linear regression are subject to estimation, where the annual GDP of voivodships (regions of...

We analyze a model for N different measurements of a persistent latent time series when measurement errors are mean-reverting, which implies a common trend among measurements. We study the consequences of overdifferencing, finding potentially large biases in maximum likelihood estimators of the...