Structural time series models applied to the factor inputs of a production function often lead to small output gaps and consequently to erratic measures of potential growth. We introduce a dual cycle model which is an extension to the multivariate trend plus cycle model with phase shifts à la...

I present empirical results on the contribution of three key drivers of inflation in Denmark: an inflation trend anchored by inflation expectations; the Danish business cycle; and an energy price cycle. All three drivers contribute significantly to the development of inflation and explain most of...