This paper studies the globalisation of CPI inflation by analysing core, energy and food components, testing for … structural breaks in the relationships between domestic inflation and a corresponding country-specific foreign inflation series …, while also taking account of outliers. We find that the overall pattern of globalisation in aggregate inflation is largely …

inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to … distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are … component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead …

techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three … the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that … demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the …

The recent volatile behaviour of U.K. inflation has been officially attributed to a sequence of “unusual” price changes …, prompting renewed interest in the construction of measures of “core inflation”, from which such unusual price changes may be … down-weighted or even excluded. This paper proposes a new approach to constructing core inflation based on detailed …

estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …