We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...

We propose a novel econometric model for estimating and forecasting cross-sections of time-varying conditional default probabilities. The model captures the systematic variation in corporate default counts across e.g. rating and industry groups by using dynamic factors from a large panel of...

Marketplace lending has fundamentally changed the relationship between borrowers and lenders in financial markets. As with many other financial products that have emerged in recent years, internet-based investors may be inexperienced in marketplace lending, highlighting the importance of...