The asymmetry in price pressure from seller vs. buyer-initiated transactions is identified as valuable measure of downside liquidity for corporate bonds. While the evidence of illiquidity on risk premium in the cross-section of corporate bonds is mixed, the aggregate liquidity asymmetry has a...

I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily due to autocorrelation in yield changes...

It is well-known that interest rates are extremely persistent, yet they are best modeled and understood as stationary processes. These properties are contradictory in the workhorse Gaussian affine term structure model in which persistent data often result in unit roots that imply...

As it can be seen from the literature the affine yield class of the term structure is very important for obtaining the fundamental properties of the zero-coupon bond yield. Therefore any new results about the properties the affine yield class are very desirable. The present paper is devoted to...

Starting from the discrete-time a ne term structure model by Dai, Le & Singleton (2006), this paper proposes a Radon-Nikodym derivative which implies that factors follow a mixture distribution under the physical measure. The model thus maintains attractive features of an affine relation between...

I construct a new dataset of subjective total return expectations at the single stock level using forecast data of sell-side analysts, which I then aggregate at both market and portfolio level. Sell-side analysts' expectations appear to be countercylical, contrarian and less persistent than...

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and...

This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...