The credit-to-GDP gap computed under the methodology recommended by Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) suffers of important limitations mainly regarding the great inertia of the estimated long-run trend, which does not allow capturing properly structural changes or sudden changes in...

In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...

What level of indebtedness jeopardizes economic stability? We show that the ratio of financial obligations (interest payments and amortizations) to income is crucial for capturing debt sustainability. Estimating a regime-switching model on aggregate US data, we find that credit losses become...

I develop methods that produce consistent estimates of the Vasicek-Basel IRB (VAIRB) credit risk model parameters. I apply these methods to Moody's data on corporate defaults over the period 1920–2008 and assess the model fit and construct hypothesis tests using bootstrap methods. The results...

In its Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB), the Basel Committee introduces the concept of “non-modellable risk factors” (NMRFs), risk factors which cannot be observed frequently enough in the market to establish an accurate and timely estimate of their value. NMRFs have to be...

We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...