We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively … stable following the Bretton Woods period, despite the adoption of different monetary regimes. The estimation of an …

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics … and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …

This paper examines the degree of persistence in UK inflation by applying long-memory methods to historical data that … evolution over time. On the whole, the evidence suggests that the degree of persistence of UK inflation has been relatively … stable following the Bretton Woods period, despite the adoption of different monetary regimes. The estimation of an …

inflation volatility.Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchangerate, output gap volatility, and output … gap will have permanent andtemporary causal effects on inflation volatility. The policymakersshould carefully consider … these results to implement appropriatepolicies to reduce inflation volatility. The finding that the shocks areof temporary …

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of Phillips curve to forecast inflation in a high inflation … and a naive no change model. The data pertains to the quarterly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987-2001. The … results show that inflation forecasts obtained from the Phillips curve are found to be more accurate than forecasts based on …

whether it helps to use the information that was available at the time in the choice of instruments in the estimation of the … information in the estimation of the Phillips curve is in using forecasts made at the time to represent expectations (2) real time …