This paper studies a class of continuous-time stochastic games in which the actions of a long-run player have a persistent effect on payoffs. For example, the quality of a firm's product depends on past as well as current effort, or the level of a policy instrument depends on a government's past...

We propose a new information criterion for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs) of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models. An advantage of our procedure is that it allows researchers to select the impulse responses that...

The inference for hidden Markov chain models in which the structure is a multiple-equation macroeconomic model raises a number of difficulties that are not as likely to appear in smaller models. One is likely to want to allow for many states in the Markov chain without allowing the number of...

Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis....

Bivariate time series data often show strong relationships between the two components, while both individual variables can be approximated by random walks in the short run and are obviously bounded in the long run. Three model classes are considered for a time-series model selection problem:...

This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combination. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasts for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an...

In this paper, I propose an instrumental variable (IV) estimation procedure to estimate global VAR (GVAR) models and show that it leads to consistent and asymptotically normal estimates of the parameters. I also provide computationally simple conditions that guarantee that the GVAR model is stable.

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

We use data generated by a macroeconomic DSGE model to study the relative benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to simple uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. Assumed rival models are four linear autoregressive specifications, one of...

This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combining methods. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasting models for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, an algorithm procedure based...