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We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373810
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809478
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that … mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality … the empirical findings, we make the study of estimating and forecasting mortality rates based on a semi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489251
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012656701
In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables is crucial for making pertinent corrections in order to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882797
During the year 2016, the Central Bank of Argentina has begun to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing the authorities of good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables turns out to be crucial to make the pertinent corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846246
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288356
Affine mortality models are well suited for theoretical and practical application in pricing and risk management of … mortality risk. They produce consistent, closed-form stochastic survival curves allowing for the efficient valuation of … mortality-linked claims. We model USA age-cohort mortality data using five multi-factor affine mortality models. We focus on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368640
The accuracy of particle filters for nonlinear state-space models crucially depends on the proposal distribution that mutates time t-1 particle values into time t values. In the widely-used bootstrap particle filter this distribution is generated by the state-transition equation. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578495
The accuracy of particle filters for nonlinear state-space models crucially depends on the proposal distribution that mutates time t − 1 particle values into time t values. In the widely-used bootstrap particle filter this distribution is generated by the state- transition equation. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012980563