Structural vector autoregressive analysis aims to trace the contemporaneous linkages among (macroeconomic) variables back to underlying orthogonal structural shocks. In homoskedastic Gaussian models the identification of these linkages deserves external and typically notdata-based information....

Quantile and least-absolute deviations (LAD) methods are popular robust statistical methods but have not generally been applied to state filtering and sequential parameter learning. This paper introduces robust state space models whose error structure coincides with quantile estimation...

Social science has come under a firestorm of criticism following the discovery that many findings cannot be replicated. This paper argues that increasing the use of out-of-sample tests would improve the reliability of findings in all fields, including “complex” fields such as macroeconomics....

For more than half a century, Manfred Deistler has been contributing to the construction of the rigorous theoretical foundations of the statistical analysis of time series and more general stochastic processes. Half a century of unremitting activity is not easily summarized in a few pages. In...

There is growing literature in macroeconomics, especially on business cycle synchronization, employing different methods of time series clustering. However, even as an unsupervised learning method, this technique requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data...

The data mining technique of time series clustering is well established in many fields. However, as an unsupervised learning method, it requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data involved. The aim of this paper is to verify usefulness of the time series...

It can be shown that inflation expectations and associated forecast errors are characterized by a high degree of persistence. One reason may be that forecasters cannot directly observe the inflation target pursued by the central bank and, hence, face a complicated forecasting problem. In...