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Asset Pricing : Time-Series Predictability
Rapach, David; Zhou, Guofu - 2022
Asset returns change with fundamentals and other factors, such as technical information and sentiment over time. In modeling time-varying expected returns, this article focuses on the out-of-sample predictability of the aggregate stock market return via extensions of the conventional predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322523
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Why does return predictability concentrate in bad times?
Cujean, Julien; Hasler, Michael - 2017
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
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A Sentiment-Based Explanation of the Forward Premium Puzzle
Yu, Jianfeng - 2015
A sentiment-based model of the exchange rate is proposed to understand the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or underestimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039206
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Asymmetry in Liquidity Pricing in the Cross-Section and Time Series of Corporate Bond Returns
Dienemann, Fabian - 2020
The asymmetry in price pressure from seller vs. buyer-initiated transactions is identified as valuable measure of downside liquidity for corporate bonds. While the evidence of illiquidity on risk premium in the cross-section of corporate bonds is mixed, the aggregate liquidity asymmetry has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835834
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What Explains the Variance of Prices and Returns? : Time-series Vs. Cross-section
Chaves, Denis B. - 2009
This paper studies the relative importance of discount rates and cash flows with a focus on the differences between time-series and cross-sectional variance tests. I show that the following holds for the market, different types of portfolios, and individual stocks: (a) changes in expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154202
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On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500’s distortion : empirical evidence and theoretical explanations
Schmitt, Noemi; Westerhoff, Frank H. - 2017
After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595441
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Forecasting Stock Prices with a News-Based Model
Schmidt, Anatoly B. - 2022
total market return in the spirit of CAPM), industry news (modeled with the relevant industry ETF returns), and the company …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239426
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Identifying Structural Breaks in Asset Pricing Behavior in the Indian Context
Raghuram, G. - 2017
The paper studied the asset pricing behavior in India for the time period from April 1991 till March 2015 by employing the Fama-French three factor model and discovered a structural break in November 2001. This structural break was due to the coefficient of the value factor that showed a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945037
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Periodic Integration and Cointegration of U.S. Stock Prices, Dividends, and Interest Rates : A New Test of the Present Value Model
Shirwani, Hassan; Delcoure, Natalya; Wilbratte, Barry J. - 2012
This paper presents a new test of the present value model of stock price determination, using some of the recent advances in the econometrics of seasonal time series. Unlike earlier studies which generally find stock prices, dividends, and interest rates to be characterized by standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014043638
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Yield curve momentum
Sihvonen, Markus - 2021
I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to … autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily … due to autocorrelation in yield changes rather than autocorrelation in bond carry and can largely be captured using a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665285