In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. We calibrate autoregression (AR) models, including specifications with a fundamental (exogenous) variable - system load, to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot...

Intro -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The German Electricity Market -- 3. Forecasting Performance of -- 4. Forecasting Performance of Time Series Models: Empirical Study -- 5. The Effect of Wind and Solar Power on Electricity Prices -- 6. Conclusion.

The electricity price is the sensitive signal of the supply-demand balance and some other market incidents. The analysis of the price data can provide plenty of the market information. It is helpful for the participants to understand the market and improve future strategies. However, most of the...