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Konjunkturzyklus. Es zeigt sich, dass der jahrzehntelange Aufwärtstrend der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland vollständig durch Hysterese … erklärt werden kann. Dagegen folgte die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA keinem Hysterese-Muster, auch nicht während der großen … Rezession. Deutschland überstand diese Rezession so gut, weil sowohl Hysterese als auch strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit durch …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
-parametric density estimation techniques to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of 17 … shocks to unemployment, but not after small changes. The result poses a challenge to theory, since most existing hysteresis …One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014219762
negative. Then, we estimate local projections for a super- visory shock hitting banks' credit standards and propose a new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865060
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013261159
Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476382
The cyclical behaviour of prices in the U.K. is investigated using a sample of annual observations covering the period 1886 1993. A structural time series model relating consumer prices to output is estimated over four sub-periods. The results indicate that prices were procyclical in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014153606
find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389529
positive and statistically significant but small relationship between sales and unemployment at the aggregate level … employment. The mechanism we tested is the following: As the economy worsens and unemployment rises (and/or employment falls … sector’s variance in price dynamics. These components are significantly correlated with variations in unemployment and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013198119
We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427292
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506047