We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left … data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock …

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left … data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock …

find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component …

Konjunkturzyklus. Es zeigt sich, dass der jahrzehntelange Aufwärtstrend der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland vollständig durch Hysterese … erklärt werden kann. Dagegen folgte die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA keinem Hysterese-Muster, auch nicht während der großen … Rezession. Deutschland überstand diese Rezession so gut, weil sowohl Hysterese als auch strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit durch …

positive and statistically significant but small relationship between sales and unemployment at the aggregate level … employment. The mechanism we tested is the following: As the economy worsens and unemployment rises (and/or employment falls … sector’s variance in price dynamics. These components are significantly correlated with variations in unemployment and …

variation alone because (i) the local and aggregate elasticities to the same type of shock are quantitatively different and (ii …

shocks to unemployment, but not after small changes. The result poses a challenge to theory, since most existing hysteresis …One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for …-parametric density estimation techniques to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of 17 …