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Dissection of Bitcoin's multiscale bubble history : from January 2012 to February 2018
Gerlach, Jan-Christian; Demos, Guilherme; Sornette, Didier - 2018
the dynamics of Bitcoin price during the analyzed time period. We explain this classification of long and short bubbles by … over this period. Then, a detailed analysis of the growing risks associated with the three long bubbles using the Log … bubbles and the four short bubbles that our time scale of analysis was able to resolve. Overall, our predictive scheme …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899669
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Stationary threshold vector autoregressive models
Grynkiv, Galyna; Stentoft, Lars - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 11 (2018) 3, pp. 1-23
This paper examines the steady state properties of the Threshold Vector Autoregressive model. Assuming that the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary distribution are derived. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895647
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Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields : evidence from international stock markets
Chen, Shyh-Wei; Xie, Zixiong - In: International review of economics & finance : IREF 48 (2017), pp. 339-354
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747311
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On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion : empirical evidence and theoretical explanations
Schmitt, Noemi; Westerhoff, Frank H. - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 80 (2017), pp. 34-53
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011817623
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Dynamic analyses for transmission between asset bubble trends of accumulated co-integration errors
Kim, Yun-Yeong - In: Asia-Pacific journal of financial studies 45 (2016) 4, pp. 574-605
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011630763
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On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500’s distortion : empirical evidence and theoretical explanations
Schmitt, Noemi; Westerhoff, Frank H. - 2017
After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595441
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Signaling Asset Price Bubbles with Time-Series Methods
Taipalus, Katja - 2012
This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional … consensus bubbles and gives warning signals well ahead of the crash, in most cases as early as 12 months ahead. The indicator … also signals most of the 'negative bubbles' before their turning points …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111338
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Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns : new evidence from the wavelet perspective
Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - 2015
This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325814
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Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns : new evidence from the wavelet perspective
Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - In: Applied economics letters 23 (2016) 16/18, pp. 1305-1311
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011702560
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Testing for single bubble episode in the Nigerian stock market : an empirical investigation
Iliyasu, Jamilu; Saba, Ndayezhin D. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 10 (2019) 1, pp. 29-49
This study evaluates a single bubble episode in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) by utilizing monthly data on nominal and real all-share index (ASI) from January 2010 to December 2017. Analysis of data based on Sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) test for bubble detection suggests non-existence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178349