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-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …
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-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544443
-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …
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We explore some aspects of the analysis of latent component structure in non-stationary time series based on time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) models that incorporate uncertainty on model order. Our modelling approach assumes that the AR coefficients evolve in time according to a random walk...
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