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Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
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We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate … consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is … decomposed into an aggregate and into an idiosyncratic part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on …
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state. It is shown that the steady state of the PtDR is jointly influenced by consumption risk, risking sharing, and the … demographic structure. Among those consumption risk is the dominating factor in shaping the variations in the steady state of the …
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alternative derivation for a measure of time-varying disaster risk suggested by Wachter (2013), implying that both the disaster … and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended towards explaining movements in the stock-bond correlation. …
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