We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980-2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...

I develop methods that produce consistent estimates of the Vasicek-Basel IRB (VAIRB) credit risk model parameters. I apply these methods to Moody's data on corporate defaults over the period 1920–2008 and assess the model fit and construct hypothesis tests using bootstrap methods. The results...

In its Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB), the Basel Committee introduces the concept of “non-modellable risk factors” (NMRFs), risk factors which cannot be observed frequently enough in the market to establish an accurate and timely estimate of their value. NMRFs have to be...

What level of indebtedness jeopardizes economic stability? We show that the ratio of financial obligations (interest payments and amortizations) to income is crucial for capturing debt sustainability. Estimating a regime-switching model on aggregate US data, we find that credit losses become...

Long-span time series on credit by institutional sectors and industries are not readily available in Denmark. The paper constructs annual time series for credit to Danish residents by sector and industry 1951-2005 and explores the trends and cycles in credit during the past five decades. There...

Amid the steep expansion in Malaysia household debt, we investigate the role of bank capital in disciplining non-performing loans (NPLs) after controlling for the macroeconomic environment. Utilizing generalized method of moments (GMM) on a dynamic panel-data of 19 commercial banks and stress...

Within the framework of the Basel III capital regulation, macroprudential authorities may order the accumulation of countercyclical capital buffers in the period when systemic risks are building up. According to recommendations, it is worth setting the size of the capital buffer on the basis of...