We study the problem of forecasting a time series that evolves according to a dynamically changing, skewed life cycle. For instance, firms often need accurate distributional forecasts of product life cycles to make operational decisions about capacity and inventory management. These forecasts...

This paper investigates the effect of both strategic and environmental factors on the tourist area life cycle for Cypress Gardens. It is hypothesized that both types of factors can have a revitalization effect on the tourist area life cycle. A step-logarithmic function is used to model the...

This volume contains specially commissioned chapters by leading researchers who have used and modified the original TALC model over the past two decades, a reprint of the original article, a discussion of its origins, and a comprehensive review of most of the published material using the TALC

This paper analyzes the transmission from global commodity to domestic food prices for a large set of countries. First, a theoretical model is developed to explain price transmission for different trade regimes. Drawing from the competitive storage model under rational expectations, it is shown...

This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996-2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as it...

Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in...