Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate...

Alexander Izmailov, Ph.D (theoretical physics) and Brian Shay, Ph.D (mathematics), of Market Memory Trading, L.L.C., present in a series of nine (9) white papers, aspects of a revolutionary advance in uncovering hidden dependencies via filtering noise from correlation matrices developed by the...

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate...

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....

The paper basically aims to clarify the level of price competitiveness of the Turkish firms towards the EU Single Market in aggregate level. Thus it naturally examines the demand for exports and imports for Turkey in relation to the EU. In order to model the trade between Turkey and the EU, we...

Using a dataset of 101 countries over the 1960–2011 period, we examine the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER), on the one hand, and trade openness, trade balance, the terms of trade, factor productivity, and exchange rate regime, on the other one. We use new...