This article extends the recent literature on the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a long-run decline in the relative prices of primary commodities. Our main innovation is testing for and estimating nonlinear alternatives to a secular deterioration. Specifically, we use bootstrap procedures to test...

The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21-...