the main drivers of this change is the low fertility level, often referred to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), since the … TFR of 1.47. However, separate analysis of age-specific fertility lead to expected increases of the future TFR. This study … presents a stochastic projection of the TFR based on econometric-statistical modeling of age-specific fertility rates over …

Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding … measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a … on a quasi-three principal component model are fitted to the age- and sex-specific fertility rates (ASSFR). Age …

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …