The field of forecasting is concerned with making statements about matters that are currently unknown. The terms "forecast," "prediction," "projections," and "prognosis" are interchangeable as commonly used. Forecasting is also concerned with the effective presentation and use of forecasts

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six U.S. Presidential elections from 1992 through 2012, we then report the reduction in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and...

Many researchers appear to operate under the impression that causal models lead to more accurate forecasts than those provided by naive models (or “projections”). This study was based on the premise that causal models lead to better forecasts than do naive models in certain situations. The...

Forecasting procedures are needed only if there is uncertainty about the future. Forecasts are unnecessary when one can control events. For example, predicting the temperature in your home does not require the use of forecasting procedures because you can control it. A forecast that the sun will...