We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data,...

Measuring economic activity in real-time is a crucial issue in applied research and in the decision-making process of policy makers; however, it also poses intricate challenges to statistical filtering methods that are built to operate optimally under the auspices of an infinite number of...

In this study I apply the recent advances in volatility estimation and forecasting to the price series of the FTSE 100, retrieved from the TRTH database. I use the recently introduced threshold bipower variation and the realized semivariance together with the usual realized variance and the...

The sample skewness and kurtosis of macroeconomic and financial time series are routinely scrutinized in the early stages of model-building and are often the central topic of studies in economics and finance. Notwithstanding the availability of several robust estimators, most scholars in...