Introduction to high frequency financial modelling -- Intra-day realized volatility measures -- Methods of volatility estimation and forecasting -- Multiple model comparison and hypothesis framework construction -- Realized volatility forecasting - applications -- Recent methods: a review --...

Tests for relative predictive accuracy have become a widespread addendum to forecast comparisons. Many empirical research reports conclude that the difference between the entertained forecasting models is 'insignificant'. This paper collects arguments that cast doubt on the usefulness of...

This dissertation is concerned with the forecasting performance of time series models for the price movements of high-frequency transaction data on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The availability of high quality data of this kind at an affordable cost makes it possible to investigate the...

This paper examines stationary and nonstationary time series by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation, model selection and forecasting. Various Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are estimated over the period...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...