I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their … cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most … favorable median forecast predicts the land temperature anomaly to reach 5.6 Celsius degrees in 2100. Forecasts conditional on …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to … the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an …

In this paper we document the results of a forecast evaluation exercise for the real world price of crude oil using VAR …, change in global crude oil production) by the sparse methods is associated with substantial reductions of forecast errors … is not associated with additonal gains in forecast performance as is the application of impulse indicator saturation …