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, commercial forecasters either under- or over- predict future inflation rates. We test whether such information can improve … inclusion of confidential supervisory information in forecasting future inflation. When the Fed receives information that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014060203
We calibrate a standard New Keynesian model with three alternative representations of monetary policy- an optimal timeless rule, a Taylor rule and another with interest rate smoothing- with the aim of testing which if any can match the data according to the method of indirect inference. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288782
We calibrate a standard New Keynesian model with three alternative representations of monetary policy- an optimal timeless rule, a Taylor rule and another with interest rate smoothing- with the aim of testing which if any can match the data according to the method of indirect inference. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003882196
forecasts of inflation rate, output gap and exchange rate changes in terms of magnitude and statistical significance across the … main objective of the policy makers is to fight the inflation rate and to limit the depreciation of exchange rate rather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840968
We explore the effects of forward guidance at the zero lower bound when there is uncertainty over the lift-off date arising from: (i) the imperfect credibility of time-inconsistent forward-guidance promises; (ii) incomplete communication. We use a simple New Keynesian model to demonstrate that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959532
inflation) do not breach particular ‘thresholds'. In common with other similar policies, threshold-based forward guidance (TBFG …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013019
The Federal Reserve has become a Supra-National Central Bank with Monetary Policy Effects on foreign equity markets that exceed the host country’s domestic central bank policy. In this paper we utilize macroeconomic data to demonstrate an outsized effect on domestic equity markets by Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211938
The Fed has never admitted targeting stock prices. Yet our empirical analysis, based on a small macro-econometric model of the U.S. economy in the period 1981-2002, shows that the Fed explicitly takes into account stock price variations in its reaction function. Furthermore, our simulation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142770
communication affects expectations and, subsequently, behavior in financial markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238784
public. However, Twitter users tend to overestimate inflation and interest rates, make a greater expectations … announcements on perceptions or expectations, yet respondents who receive news have better perceptions and expectations than those …/perception error. In addition they report higher confidence in their estimates. In terms of expectations quality, spreading the word of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012519956