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In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating …-maximizing central bank should adopt flexible headline inflation targeting a target for headline CPI inflation with some weight on the …
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We examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the … long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component … of inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed …
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This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation … forecasts of inflation) but also makes forecasters less uncertain about their own beliefs, thus reducing ex-ante average … individual uncertainty. By combining and exploiting these types of ex-ante inflation uncertainty, results suggest that central …
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Do extreme events have a significant effect about textual sentiment? The purpose of this article is to highlight the need to correct the estimation of indicators of economic uncertainty. The indicators were constructed from textual data about the perspective of extreme events. For this purpose,...
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