We measure the tone (sentiment) of the ECB's Governing Council regarding economic outlook at the time of each monetary policy meeting and use this information together with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections to directly estimate the Governing Council's loss function. Our results...

Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not...

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central bank optimization predict that the central bank's preference for output...

What institutional arrangements for an independent central bank with a price stability mandate promote good policy outcomes when unconventional policies become necessary? Unconventional monetary policy poses challenges. The large scale asset purchases needed to counteract the zero lower bound on...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in...

This paper reviews the rationale for quantitative easing when central bank policy rates reach near zero levels in light of recent announcements regarding direct asset purchases by the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Empirical evidence...

Aufgabe der Europäischen Zentralbank ist es, für Preisstabilität zu sorgen. Sollte sie angesichts der Schuldenkrise einiger Euroländer einen Kurswechsel vornehmen und – in unbegrenztem Umfang – Staatsanleihen der Krisenländer aufkaufen? Welche Risiken sind mit einer solchen Politik...

Seit mehr als einem Jahr ist der Preisanstieg im Euroraum im Trend rückläufig. Angesichts der geringen Inflationsrate wird über ein mögliches Abrutschen in eine Deflation diskutiert. Wie groß ist diese Gefahr und wie sollte die EZB reagieren? Das wahrscheinlichere Szenario der nächsten...