In this paper we provide an estimate of the likelihood of conflict between the federal government and the Bundesbank for the 1989 - 1998 period. We rely on a novel proxy for the impact of public communication by Bundesbank officials on the probability of conflict, in addition to interest rate,...

Conventional economic policy models focus only on selected elements of the central bank balance sheet, in particular monetary liabilities and sometimes foreign reserves. The canonical model of an independent central bank assumes that it chooses money (or an interest rate) unconstrained by a need...

The renewed interest in the theory of the lender of last resort (LOLR) as well as the missing LOLR in the Eurosystem has triggered a new thesis on the LOLR: not the central bank but the Minister of Finance is the true LOLR. The classical theorists of central banking – Steuart, Thornton,...

How does central bank conservatism affect labor market reform? In this paper we examine the economic forces at work. An increase in conservatism triggers two opposite effects. It reduces the inflation bias of discretionary monetary policy and hence the benefits of a reform. It also increases...

The behaviour of the exchange rate under a floating exchange rate regime for a small open economy with perfect capital mobility may appear like a managed float or even a firmer peg. We present a canonical new neo-classical synthesis open economy model where the central bank follows a strategy...

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the...

Als Reaktion auf die Corona-Krise haben die Notenbanken des Eurosystems ihre Anleihekäufe im Rahmen des APP-Programms weiter aufgestockt und um das PEPP-Programm erweitert. Diese im Zusammenspiel mit weiteren Maßnahmen der "außergewöhnlichen Geldpolitik" geschaffene zusätzliche Liquidität...

This thesis was written by Jakob Eberl while having been a research assistant at the Center for Economic Studies (CES) at the University of Munich. It was completed in December 2015 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich in May 2016. The...

During the Great Recession numerous central banks have implemented various unconventional monetary policy measures. This paper aims to empirically evaluate two particular types of unconventional policies (forward guidance and quantitative easing) in a structural manner. The primary aim is to...

Die Europäische Währungsunion steckt in einer tiefen Zahlungsbilanzkrise. Insbesondere Griechenland, Irland, Portugal und Spanien wiesen in der Vergangenheit Leistungsbilanzdefizite auf, die sich bis März 2011 auf 314 Milliarden Euro akkumulierten. Dies entspricht dem Stand der aggregierten...