Stylized empirical facts about the correlation between the volume of international trade and exchange rate variability/uncertainty are at odds with the predictions of the simple open economy model. The present paper argues that this puzzle may be explained by drawing on the recent theoretical...

I show that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long-run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler's ruin problem. However, low credibility and frequent realignments can destabilize the exchange rate

I show that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long-run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler's ruin problem. However, low credibility and frequent realignments can destabilize the exchange rate

We discuss the idea of a purely algorithmic universal world iCurrency set forth in: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=2542541" https://ssrn.com/abstract=2542541 and expanded in: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3059330" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3059330 in light of recent developments, including Libra. Is...

We present a model of a quot;softquot; exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate's current level, thus allowing the rate to move...

We derive the optimal exchange rate policy for a small open economy subject to terms-of-trade shocks. Firm owners and workers are risk averse but workers more so. Wages are given or partially indexed in the short run, and capital markets are imperfect. The government sets the exchange rate to...

This paper is devoted to the past, present, and future of the European Monetary System (EMS). After examining its background, the paper reviews the structure and operation of the EMS, as well as the theoretical framework used to explain exchange-rate movements inside official fluctuation bands....

This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). We differ from previous studies in the literature in three main respects. First, our main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which...

Time series evidence on exchange rates has been unable to reject the random walk hypothesis. A simple structural model that accounts for target zone nonlinearities provides conclusive evidence of mean reversion in EMS exchange rates.

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the central banks of small open economies such as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) implemented a unilateral one-sided exchange rate target zone vis- à-vis the euro currency to counteract deflationary pressures. Recently, the SNB abandoned its...