This paper investigates how recent changes in market interest rates have affected risk-adjusted returns. Returns are adjusted for duration, a measure of interest rate risk. Prior to the 2007-2008 rate decrease, one-year Treasuries offered the best risk/return tradeoff. As a result of the rate...

We revisit the evidence on real effects of uncertainty shocks in the context of interest rate uncertainty, which can be hedged in the swap market. We document that adverse movements in interest rate uncertainty predict significant slowdowns in real activity, at the aggregate and at the...

Life insurers typically grant policyholders a surrender option. We demonstrate that the resulting lapse risk could materialise in the form of a "policyholder run" if interest rates were to increase sharply. An inverse stress test based on a unique set of regulatory panel data suggests that...