Estimates of the natural interest rate are often useful in the analysis of monetary and other macroeconomic policies. The topic gathered much attention following the great financial crisis and the Euro Area debt crisis due to the uncertainty regarding the timing of monetary policy normalization...

This paper analyzes the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) both before and after the global financial crisis. In contrast to extant literature, we use a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach that does not rely on one underlying empirical model but...

This paper uses an estimated open economy DSGE model to examine if constant interest forecasts one and two years ahead can be regarded as modest policy interventions during the period 1993Q4-2002Q4. An intervention is here defined to be modest if it does not trigger the agents to revise their...