This paper incorporates model uncertainty to study an inter-temporal investment-consumption choice problem. Using a modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model in a complete market context, we propose an approach for quantifying uncertainty, which requires only an uncertainty parameter rather than an...

The market model of interest rates specifies simple forward or Libor rates as lognormally distributed, their stochastic dynamics has a linear volatility function. In this paper, the model is extended to quadratic volatility functions which are the product of a quadratic polynomial and a...

The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a "path" factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is highest when it...

This paper provides extensions to existing procedures for representing one-factor no-arbitrage models of the short rate in the form of a tree. It allows a wide range of drift functions for the short rate to be used in conjunction with a wide range of volatility assumptions. It shows that, if the...

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases...

Over the last decade, dividends have become a standalone asset class instead of a mere side product of an equity investment. We introduce a framework based on polynomial jump-diffusions to jointly price the term structures of dividends and interest rates. Prices for dividend futures, bonds, and...

The credit valuation adjustment (CVA) of OTC derivatives is an important part of the Basel III credit risk capital requirements and current accounting rules. Its calculation is not an easy task - not only it is necessary to model the future value of the derivative, but also the probability of...

This paper demonstrates how to value American interest rate options under the jump extended constant-elasticity-of-variance (CEV) models. We consider both exponential jumps (see Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000)) and lognormal jumps (see Johannes (2004)) in the short rate process. We show how to...

In response to the financial crisis, a plethora of new research appeared which attempted to understand, incorporate, and delineate the most significant changes observed in the market. Editors Massimo Morini and Marco Bianchetti have both experienced first-hand how market patterns and...

We show that forward rates can be modeled as ABCD parametric tenor basis spreads over the underlying overnight rate curve. This is possible for both continuously and simply compounded forward rates, with a simple approximation for converting between the corresponding basis. Increasing...