This paper relates Keynes's discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors' expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the...

On 16th November 2009, SUERF, CEPS and the Belgian Financial Forum coorganized a conference "Crisis management at cross-roads" in Brussels. All papers in the present volume are based on contributions at the conference and the SUERF Annual Lecture which followed the event.

Monetary policy measures taken by the Federal Reserve as a response to the 2007-09 financial crisis and subsequent economic conditions led to a large increase in the level of outstanding reserves. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a range of tools to control short-term market rates in...

This paper models the month-over-month change in euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the change in the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on the change in EUR swap yields of different maturity tenors, after...

This paper examines the dynamics of euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on EUR swap yields of different maturity tenors, after controlling for various key macroeconomic...

This paper examines the spillover effects of the U.S. Fed's and the European Central Bank (ECB)'s target interest rate news on the market returns and return volatilities of twelve stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region over the period 1999-2006. The news spillover effects on the returns are...

The Federal Reserve has become a Supra-National Central Bank with Monetary Policy Effects on foreign equity markets that exceed the host country’s domestic central bank policy. In this paper we utilize macroeconomic data to demonstrate an outsized effect on domestic equity markets by Federal...

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases...

I provide empirical evidence that Fed officials use their speeches to guide short-term interest rate expectations. Measures of misalignment between market and central bankers' expectations predict tone in speeches about monetary policy and that central bankers mention market expectations...

In this paper, I examine whether communications by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) play a role in determining the types of macroeconomic news that financial markets pay attention to. To do so, I construct novel measures of the intensity with which FOMC statements and meeting minutes...