we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …

This paper analyzes the joint dynamic processes of macroeconomic and monetary variables and bond yields in China. We … changes in macroeconomic and monetary variables. These results differ from an earlier study on bond yields by Ang and Piazzesi …

Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal …

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Swedish government bond (SGB) yields. It examines whether the short … reaffirm John Maynard Keynes's view that the central bank's monetary policy affects long-term government bond yields through … with empirical patterns discerned in previous studies related to government bond yields in both advanced countries and …

Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of … dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). The movements of equity and bond yields are driven mainly by … returns/yields and nominal bond returns/yields switched from positive to negative after the late 1990s, owing mainly to a …

stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is … innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility of long-term bond returns. The model also implies that excess bond …