This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement … about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on … forecasting horizons. Only the cyclical inflation disagreement has a significant impact on monetary policy efficacy. High …

-time data (1964Q2:2020Q3) for 8 macroeconomic time series (GDP, inflation, federal funds rate, spread, consumption, investment … including them in a weighted average. Especially, ANNbased inflation forecasts improve other predictions by up to 50%. These …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Countryby-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …